Savings model
How the savings are sized, why they are tiered, and the point that matters most: even the most conservative case pays for the programme in its first year.
1The method: a four-factor waterfall
Savings are built up one workflow at a time, from the team's own numbers. Each workflow's annual saving is the product of four factors:
| Factor | What it means |
|---|---|
| Loaded team cost | The team's fully loaded cost: payroll plus on-costs (end-of-service, visas, insurance, ticket) and bonus, so savings are measured on real cost, not base salary alone. |
| Time share | The portion of that team's time the workflow actually consumes. |
| Addressable share | The portion of that time the technology can realistically touch (for example, the data-entry element of an accounting mandate, not the judgement element). |
| Capture rate | How much of the addressable time is actually freed. This is the factor the tiers below vary, and it is held conservative. |
2The seven workflows
The model sizes seven workflows where Stage 1 evidenced the load. Judgement work (tax opinions, audit conclusions) is excluded: it stays with the professional.
- Monthly accounting
- Annual accounting
- Regulatory commercial onboarding
- ADGM authorisations
- Board minutes
- Internal compliance onboarding
- Group close
3Tiered four ways
The same model is run at four capture levels, so a reader can see how firm each number is instead of taking one blended figure on trust:
| Tier | What it assumes |
|---|---|
| Devil's advocate | The floor: every capture rate halved. |
| Cautious | Conservative capture across the workflows. |
| Expected | The realistic central case. |
| Best case | Capture at the top of the credible range. |
The tier totals sit in the savings workbook alongside the one-time and ongoing costs, so the return can be read at whichever level of caution you prefer.
The complete calculation lives in an Excel workbook: every workflow, every input and capture rate, and the tier totals alongside the one-time and ongoing costs. It has been shared separately, and the latest version is available on request.
4The floor
Even the Devil's advocate tier, with every capture rate halved, frees enough to cover the one-time programme cost inside the first year. The case does not rest on the optimistic tiers being right; if only the floor materialises, the programme still pays for itself, and everything above it is upside.
5What is still an estimate
Three things to keep in mind:
- The baselines come from division-head interviews in Stage 1, treated as observed rather than independently audited.
- They are re-measured against a real time study at the WS0 kickoff, and the model re-cuts against those measurements.
- Capture rates are held conservative until proven in use; the tiers are there so no single assumption carries the case.